ASAN Stock: Are investors in Asana bullish or bearish?

Asana, Inc. operates a work management platform for individuals, team leads, and executives in the United States and internationally. It provides a work management platform as software as service that enables individuals and teams to get work done faster while enhancing employee engagement by allowing everyone to see how their work connects to the mission of an organization.

Bullish Signs:

  • Founded by Facebook co-founder (left in 2008 to start Asana) who just bought $70m in shares on 7 different buys at average of $43/share in the last two weeks. Partner is ex-Google executive, so they know their tech.
  • Dollar Retention Rate YOY was 115%, meaning last year’s customers spent ~115% more this year to continue using the product / expand their use. Sign that current customers not only like the product, but want to use it more.
  • Revenue projections were recently increased by 5%, from ~$314m to $340m for FY2022.

Bearish Signs:

  • Without owner’s continued purchases, the stock would lose a lot of momentum and return to a more normalized volume/price.
  • $230m in revenues and -$210m in net income, but now a $9b valuation. Doesn’t add up, can’t be sustained.
  • Has set a new All-Time High almost every day for the last two weeks. Correction seems overdue.
  • Above the upper Bollinger Band (shown in image reference), which is a big sign it is oversold and likely to return closer to the current mean ($40.34), even if the company performs well in the long term. Went down significantly within 2 months the last time it went above the Upper BB.
  • RSI above 90, meaning it is oversold and should return closer to the mean soon.
  • Revenue increased by $85m last year, but marketing expenses increased by $84m and total expenses increased by $142m. Basically, every $1 spent on marketing only brought in $1 in revenue, which is awful for any business. It is especially bad for a product that doesn’t have long term contracts and easy access to market for competitors. However, we’ve already determined current customers seem to like the product, so maybe spending a lot of money to get new customers is good for long term growth.
  • July Put/Call Volume is basically even (shown in image reference). Stock went up huge in June on a .16 P/C volume ratio, but the next 30 days are .99 P/C ratio. In June, 7x more people were betting it would go up vs. down, now it is even for July. Will be a lot more downwards pressure in the next 30 days if stock buyers/sellers match that ratio.
  • Accumulation vs. Distribution is (literally) off the charts, 3x higher than a month ago. This isn’t the kind of stock that people will just hodl forever. Eventually, these people that have had 60% gains in the last two weeks will sell for a profit and the spike will end.
  • StockTwit overall sentiment is -6%, with many of the bullish comments admitting they are probably going to take profits and rebuy soon. Rather unusual for a stock that has gone up so quickly, so sentiment seems way down.

Sourced from Reddit by u/tockstocks